You are here

Patterns of Milk Productivity Formation and Changes Throughout Cow Lactation and Methods for Its Prediction

The aim of this study was, on the one hand, to analyze changes in milk productivity and milk quality indicators in cows throughout lactation and, on the other hand, to determine the optimal timing of test-day milkings for milk sampling in order to obtain the most accurate prediction for standard lactation. The study was conducted at the agricultural enterprise “Molocharske” in the Pokrovskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk region using Holstein cows. It was established that the maximum daily milk yield in Holstein cows was observed on the 50th day of lactation, after which a gradual decline in daily milk production occurred until the end of lactation. Significant negative correlations were found between milk yield and fat content (r = -0.32; p≤0.001), as well as between milk yield and protein content (r = -0.28; p≤0.001). At the beginning of lactation, the fat-to-protein ratio was elevated, indicating a negative energy balance during this period. In the second half of lactation, an increase in the number of somatic cells in milk was observed. At the same time, a signifi cant positive relationship was established between somatic cell count and protein content (r = 0.19; p≤0.05). Meanwhile, lactose content showed a negative correlation both with somatic cell count (r = -0.38) and protein content (r = -0.22). The energy-corrected milk (ECM2) yield decreased from 33.44 to 21.51 kg throughout lactation and showed a strong significant correlation with daily milk yield (r = 0.91; p≤0.001), confi rming its informativeness for the comprehensive assessment of milk productivity. The highest correlation coefficients between the results of test-day milkings and productivity indicators for standard lactation were established for the 3rd–6th test-day milkings. This indicates the feasibility of using this particular lactation period for the most accurate prediction of 305-day productivity. At the same time, fat content determined at diff erent stages of lactation correlated more weakly with the average lactation value compared with other traits, which reduces the accuracy of its prediction based on individual daily indicators.

Keywords: dairy cows, productivity prediction, milk yield, fat and protein content, somatic cells.

  1. Hu, H., Whitcomb, C.A., Ploetz, T.E., Reed, K.F. (2025). Transdisciplinary model-based systems engineering (MBSE) in the development of the Ruminant Farm Systems model. Frontiers in Sustainability, no. 6. DOI:10.3389/frsus.2025.1561453.
  2. Godber, O.F., Czymmek, K.J., van Amburgh, M.E., Ketterings, Q.M. (2025). Farm-gate greenhouse gas emission intensity for medium to large New York dairy farms. Journal of Dairy Science, no 108, pp. 5039–5060. DOI:10.3168/jds.2024-25874
  3. Borshch, O.O., Ruban, S., Borshch, O.V., Kosior, L., Fedorchenko, M., Bondarenko L., Bilkevich V. (2022). Composition and cheese suitability of milk from local Ukrainian cows and their crossbreedings with Montbeliarde breed. Agronomy Research, Vol. 20, no. 3, pp. 494–501. DOI:10.15159/AR.22.058
  4. Gong, Y., Hu, H., Reed, K.F., Cabrera, V.E. (2025). Advancing dairy farm simulations: a 2-step approach for tailored lactation curve estimation and its systemic impacts. Journal of Dairy Science, no. 108, pp. 9681–9695. DOI:10.3168/jds.2025-26334
  5. Li, J., Kebreab, E., You, F., Fadel, J.G., Hansen, T.L., VanKerhove, C., Reed, K.F. (2022). The application of nonlinear programming on ration formulation for dairy cattle. Journal of Dairy Science, no. 105, pp. 2180–2189. DOI:10.3168/jds.2021-20817.
  6. Ruban, S., Danshyn, V., Matvieiev, M., Borshch, O.O., Borshch, O.V., Korol-Bezpala, L. (2022). Characteristics of lactation curve and reproduction in dairy cattle. Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis. Vol. 70, no. 28, pp. 373–381. DOI:10.11118/actaun.2022.028
  7. del Prado, A., Vibart, R.E., Bilotto, F.M., Faverin, C., Garcia, F., Henrique, F.L., Leite, F.F.G.D., Mazzetto, A.M., Ridoutt, B.G., Yáñez-Ruiz, D.R., Bannink, A. (2025). Feed additives for methane mitigation: Assessment of feed additives as a strategy to mitigate enteric methane from ruminants – Accounting; How to quantify the mitigating potential of using antimethanogenic feed additives. Journal of Dairy Science, no. 108, pp. 411–429. DOI:10.3168/jds.2024-25044.
  8. Fedota, O., Puzik, N., Skrypkina, I., Babalyan, V., Mitiohlo, L., Ruban, S., Borshch, O.О., Borshch, O.V. (2022). Single nucleotide polymorphism C994g of the cytochrome P450 gene possess pleiotropic effects in Bos taurus, L. Acta Biologica Szegediensis, Vol. 66, no. 1, pp. 7–15. DOI:10.14232/abs.2022.1.7-15  
  9. Ruban, S., Merzlov, S., Matvieiev, M., Borshch, O.V., Borshch, O.O., Bilkevich, V., Lykhach, V., Fedorchenko, M., Bondarenko, L. (2023). Amino acid composition of milk from Finnish Ayrshire cows and their crossbreeds with the Norwegian Red breed. Agronomy Research, Vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 897–906. DOI:10.15159/AR.23.096
  10. Ruban, S., Danshyn, V., Matvieiev, M., Lastovska, I., Borshch, O.O., Borshch, O.V., Bilkevych, V., Fedorchenko, M., Lykhach, V. (2023). Grounding the economic selection index for evaluation and selection of dairy cattle. Journal of the Indonesian Tropical Animal Agriculture, Vol. 48, no. 4, pp. 258–268. DOI:10.14710/jitaa.48.4.258-268
  11. Matvieiev, M., Ceyhan, A., Kozaklı, Ö., Getya, A., Borshch, O.O., Ruban, S. (2025). Comparison of non-linear models for growth characterization of purebred Ayrshire and crossbred cattle. Archives Animal Breeding, Vol. 6, no. 4, pp. 721–730. DOI:10.5194/aab-68-721-2025
  12. Weigel, D.J., Adamchick, J., Briggs, K.R., Fessenden, B., Melchior, E.A., Fouts, J.Q., Reed, K.F., Di, Croce F. 2025. Reduction of environmental effects through genetic selection. Journal of Dairy Science, no. 108, pp. 7165–7178. DOI:10.3168/jds.2024-25984
  13. Lastovska, I., Matvieiev, M., Borshch, O.V., Getya, A., Ruban, S., Babenko, O., Borshch, O.O., Chumachenko, I., Ostrovskiy, D. (2025). The Influence of Somatic Cell Count in Milk on Its Composition During the Summer Period. Poljoprivreda, Vol. 31, no. 2, pp. 46–52. DOI:10.18047/poljo.31.2.6
  14. Matvieiev, M., Getya, A., Nehrey, M., Yakubets, T., Ruban, S., Nazarko, O., Borshch, O.O., Lastovska, I., Baban, V., Mashkin, M. (2025). Optimisation of dairy farming in Ukraine: Integrating modern information technologies for genetic improvement and sustainable herd management. Agronomy Research, Vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 435–447. DOI:10.15159/AR.25.010
  15. Breen, M., Upton, J., Murphy, M.D. (2020). Photovoltaic systems on dairy farms: Financial and renewable multi-objective optimization (FARMOO) analysis. Applied Energy, no. 278. DOI:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115534.
  16. Li, T.T., Zhao, A.P., Wang, Y., Alhazmi, M. (2025). Hybrid energy storage for dairy farms: Enhancing energy efficiency and operational resilience. Journal of Energy Storage, no. 114. DOI:10.1016/j.est.2025.115811
  17. Kebreab, E., Reed, K.F., Cabrera, V.E., Vadas, P.A., Thoma, G., Tricarico, J.M. (2019). A new modeling environment for integrated dairy system management. Animal Frontiers, no. 9, pp. 25–32. DOI:10.1093/af/vfz004.
  18. Reed, K.F., Adamchick, J., Briggs, K.R., Nydam, D.V. (2024). Simulating diverse dairy management systems with the RuFaS model in Proc. Cornell Nutrition Conference. Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, pp. 47–57. Available at:https://hdl.handle.net/1813/115565.
  19. Bittante, G. (2022). Effects of breed, farm intensiveness, and cow productivity on infrared predicted milk urea. Journal of Dairy Science, Vol. 105, no. 6, pp. 5084–5096. DOI:10.31 68/jds.2021-21105
  20. da Rosa, Righi R., Goldschmidt, G., Kunst, R., Deon, C., da Costa, C.A. (2020). Towards combining data prediction and internet of things to manage milk production on dairy cows. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture, Vol. 169. DOI:10.1016/j.compag.2019.105156
  21. ICAR (International Committee for Animal Recording). (2022). Section 2 – Guidelines for Dairy Cattle Milk Recording. Available at:https://www.icar.org/Guidelines/02-Overview-Cattle-Milk-Recording.pdf
  22. Bentley Instruments, Inc. (2015). DairySpec FT User Manual. Bentley Instruments, Inc., Minnesota, USA.
  23. Wiggans, G., Shook, G. (1987). A Lactation measure of somatic-cell count. Journal of Dairy Science, Vol. 70, pp. 2666–2672. DOI:10.3168/jds.S0022-3190302(87)80337-5
  24. Sjaunja, L.O., Baevre, L., Junkkarinen, L., Pedersen, J., Setala, J. (1990). A Nordic proposal for an energy corrected milk (ECM) formula. Comite international pour le controle de la productivite laitiere du betail. 27eme session, 2-6 Juillet, Paris, France.
  25. Cronk, B.C. (2008). How to use SPSS: A step-by-step guide to analysis and interpretation. California: Pyrczak Pub.
AttachmentSize
PDF icon getya_1_2026_.pdf1.1 MB